I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past

I find inspiration in Thomas Jefferson’s quote, ‘I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past.’ It encourages me to embrace a forward-looking mindset and actively contribute to positive change. Now, let’s delve into the potential double whammy in the weather forecast and its implications for India’s climatic conditions.”

In 2023, global temperatures soared to record highs, solidifying it as the warmest year since 1850. With a global average temperature of 14.98°C, it surpassed the previous record in 2016 by 0.17°C. The year was 0.60°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and a striking 1.48°C warmer than the pre-industrial level of 1850-1900. Alarming trends continue as it is anticipated that a 12-month period ending in early 2024 will likely exceed the critical 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. Furthermore, 2023 saw a unprecedented milestone: every day throughout the year surpassed 1°C above the pre-industrial level, with nearly half of the days exceeding 1.5°C, and two days in November reaching an unprecedented 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

After the La Niña phenomenon ended in early 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared El Niño’s onset last July. WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas notes that El Niño’s global temperature impacts usually manifest the following year, as in 2024. Taalas warns that this year could be even warmer, attributing it unequivocally to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities.

A rare combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and a significant temperature shift in the Indian Ocean may intensify heat and drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, along with causing flooding in East Africa.