India–Russia eye big dairy & seafood trade push
India and Russia have initiated talks to deepen bilateral trade in dairy, meat and fisheries — a move that could reshape export-demand and significantly impact India’s dairy sector.
At a recent meeting in New Delhi, India’s Minister for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry & Dairying met his Russian counterpart to discuss easing market-access restrictions, fast-tracking registration of Indian processing units, and increasing veterinary & animal-health cooperation.
India exported fish & fishery products worth US $7.45 billion in 2024-25 — of which Russian-destined shipments accounted for about US $127 million, showing Russia already figures among India’s export partners.
Russia has expressed readiness to import not just fish and meat products but also dairy produce — butter, SMP/WMP, cheese — provided Indian manufacturing plants are listed on the Russian veterinary-phytosanitary registry (FSVPS). A number of Indian dairies including some of the largest cooperatives are awaiting final approvals under this process.
Officials on both sides have flagged potential for joint ventures in aquaculture, cold-water fisheries (trout), advanced processing, and cross-sector cooperation (veterinary-vaccine, animal health, cold-chain logistics) — signaling a long-term partnership beyond mere trade.
Analysts say that if this trade push succeeds, India’s dairy and fisheries exporters could gain a significant new market — helping absorb the surplus from domestic production growth — while rural producers and farmers could benefit from improved demand and better farm-gate prices. However, realization depends on timely regulatory clearances, smooth logistics, currency/settlement mechanisms, and global dairy-commodity cycles.
Future Scenarios : Dairynews7x7 analysis
India’s trade talks with Russia open three distinct scenarios for dairy markets over 2026–2028. In the baseline case, exports to Russia rise moderately—around 50% above current levels—as plant registrations progress gradually. This helps absorb 5–7% of India’s surplus milk, stabilising farm-gate prices with a mild ₹1–2 per litre improvement.
In the upside or FTA-success scenario, regulatory clearances move quickly and Russia scales up dairy imports from India, lifting exports by nearly 150%. Such a ramp-up could absorb 15–20% of surplus milk through butter, SMP, cheese and value-added dairy shipments, strengthening farm-gate prices by ₹3–5 per litre. However, in a downside scenario, delays in Russian approvals or global price pressures restrict export growth to negligible levels.
This leaves the domestic market to absorb the entire surplus, softening prices by ₹2–₹4 per litre and putting pressure on producers. Overall, India’s dairy outlook will depend heavily on the speed of regulatory alignment, logistics stability and global demand conditions, with the upside scenario offering the strongest gains for farmers.
Source : Dairynews7x7 Dec 6th 2025 Outlook Business
