USDA Resumes WASDE Report After October Gap
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has resumed the publication of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report in November, following a pause in October due to the government shutdown. The November report was released on 14th November and provides updated global and domestic forecasts across crops and livestock, including insights into the dairy sector.
According to the report, U.S. milk production estimates for 2025 have been revised upward due to higher expected cow inventories and an increase in per-cow productivity. Estimates for 2026 are also adjusted upward. Meanwhile, forecasts for milk-fat basis imports in 2025 have been reduced, especially for butter, while exports on both fat and skim-solids basis have been raised. These shifts highlight the U.S. dairy industry's growing export competitiveness.
Despite projected growth in milk supply, commodity prices such as butter, cheese, and non-fat dry milk are forecast to decline in 2025 due to increased production. In contrast, whey prices are expected to rise owing to stronger demand. As a result of these trends, the all-milk price forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards to $21.05 per hundredweight, with a further decrease projected for 2026 at $19.25/cwt.
These trends carry important implications for dairy stakeholders. Farmers and processors may face pressure on margins due to the anticipated softening of key commodity prices, challenging their profitability unless they adapt through efficiency improvements or by tapping into value-added opportunities. For exporters, the upward revision in export projections could offer opportunities, but competitiveness in global markets will depend on factors such as quality, freight economics, and trade policies.
The WASDE report’s return provides crucial insights for global dairy markets. For players in India, especially importers and exporters, declining U.S. dairy prices and improved export forecasts could influence trade dynamics. Those operating in the global dairy value chain would do well to stay tuned to these market signals as they plan production, pricing, and sourcing strategies.
Source : Dairynews7x7 Nov 16th 2025 Agproud
