NZ Milk Output Jumps 17.8% at Start of 2025/26 Season
At the outset of New Zealand’s 2025/26 dairy season, milk production surged 17.8% year-on-year—an unusually strong start even during seasonal low months (June–July) . ANZ agricultural economist Matt Dilly credits excellent pasture growth and a recovery from earlier drought, alongside improved reproduction metrics and reduced herd culling, for the lift in production potential . Feed imports such as Palm Kernel Expeller have increased by 34%, providing supplemental support as the season builds toward the high-output months of August through October 1.
Market signals are equally bullish: Fonterra’s farmgate milk price is forecast at NZD 10/kg milksolids (kgMS) with a range of NZD 8–11/kgMS, matching futures markets and indicating confidence for a second consecutive high-price dairy season . Higher commodity prices reflect tight supply conditions globally; Rabobank’s projections show that milk output across the “Big 7” exporting regions (NZ, EU, US, Australia, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil) will grow modestly by 0.8% in 2025, keeping inventories low and prices firm .
From a trade and export perspective, New Zealand appears well positioned to meet solid international demand across markets in Asia and elsewhere, supporting commodity premiums despite rising volumes. The sustained price level and expanding production suggest export performance will remain strong, boosting returns for New Zealand dairy and reinforcing its bargaining power in international dairy trade .
Industry Insight:
New Zealand’s early-season production surge and stable milk price outlook point to strong export leverage in 2025/26—underscoring how tight global supply, even with modest growth, can sustain farmgate margins and open strategic trade opportunities.
Source : Dairynews7x7 July 30th 2025 RNG