GDT Event 386 declined by 0.3% & Global Dairy Trends

By DairyNews7x7•Published on August 19, 2025

On Tuesday, 19 August 2025, GDT Trading Event 386 recorded a 0.3% decline in the overall GDT Price Index. The average price landed at US $4,291 per metric tonne (equivalent to €3,676). Among key product movements:

Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) edged up 0.1% to $7,078/MT.
Butter declined 1.0%, now at $7,144/MT.
Cheddar decreased 0.5% to $4,548/MT.
Mozzarella fell sharply 2.7%, priced at $4,447/MT.
Skim Milk Powder (SMP) dropped 1.8% to $2,756/MT.
Whole Milk Powder (WMP) bucked the trend with a slight 0.3% gain, at $4,036/MT.
Buttermilk powders and lactose had no reported activity.

Industry Insight: WMP held firm, reflecting resilient global demand; SMP and cheese-based products weakened, while fat-rich products like butter and mozzarella faced softness—signalling shifting consumer and export dynamics.

Broader Global Dairy Price Trends

Global dairy markets are under growing pressure from rising milk output across major regions:

A Maxum Foods report highlights that increased production from the US, New Zealand, and a recovering EU has weakened overall fair values, particularly as EU butterfat tightness eases amidst concerns over summer heat and feed supply vulnerabilities.
The FAO Dairy Price Index (July 2025) averaged 155.3 points, down slightly 0.1% from June, yet a strong 21.5% increase year-on-year. The dip was driven by weaker butter and milk powder prices, offset by rising cheese quotations—boosted by tight supply and firm demand in parts of the EU and Middle East.
Looking at production and demand dynamics, Rabobank reports that modest supply growth in Q1 2025 supported price firmness, but projections suggest a sharp acceleration in output over coming quarters—heightening downside risk. Simultaneously, demand softening in key markets like the US and China introduces further uncertainty.
HighGround Dairy’s August update reinforces these themes: dairy production remains robust, component output strong, and thanks to easing feed costs, producer margins are favorable. However, continued vigilance and strategic positioning are advised amid ongoing volatility.
According to AHDB, June witnessed a general uptick in global wholesale dairy prices: butter (+2%), SMP (+1.1%), cheddar (+0.7%), and WMP (+0.6%). Regionally, the US saw sharper gains (e.g., SMP +5.1%, cheddar +5%) contrasting with mixed signals from Europe and Oceania.

Final Industry Insight

While GDT Event 386 reflects nuanced short-term commodity shifts—WMP resilience amid broad softness—the broader dairy narrative is clear: elevated supplies are starting to challenge pricing stability. Sustained strength in cheese and WMP may offer tactical reprieve, but softening butter, SMP, and global demand indicators signal that producers and traders should prepare for market recalibration in the second half of 2025.

Source : Dairynews7x7 Aug 19th 2025