China’s Dairy Imports Hold Steady Amid Slow Economy

China continues to import significant volumes of butter, cheese, and milk powders despite slowing economic growth and expanding domestic milk production. However, overall import levels remain below their historical highs, says Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

According to Berning, China’s push toward dairy self-sufficiency—through heavy investments in large-scale farms—has reduced import values over time. “Consumers may also be shifting their preferences toward other foods, cutting into demand for some imported dairy products,” she adds.

Record cheese and butter imports

Trade Data Monitor data shows that through September 2025, China’s cheese imports rose 13.5% year-on-year to 31.5 million pounds. For the first nine months of the year, cheese imports were 8.7% higher than the same period in 2024. Butter imports also remained strong at 23.7 million pounds, 8.8% above last year’s levels — both categories tracking toward record annual volumes.

Whole milk powder rebounds, SMP and whey weaken

China’s whole milk powder (WMP) imports, mainly sourced from New Zealand, surged 41% in September to 32.3 million pounds compared with a weak base in 2024. Year-to-date WMP imports reached 724.2 million pounds, ranking as the ninth-highest since 2016.

In contrast, skim milk powder (SMP) imports fell 3% to 18.6 million pounds, the lowest September level since 2011. Whey imports also slipped 3.1% to 117.4 million pounds.

“Surprisingly, China’s imports of U.S. whey products dropped only 0.5% despite ongoing trade tensions,” Berning notes. Earlier this year, Beijing announced plans to reduce its hog population by 1 million breeding sows, a move that could curb whey demand further in the months ahead.

Economic clouds over dairy demand

China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.8%, meeting analysts’ expectations but marking the smallest increase in a year. Of particular concern was a 0.5% year-to-date decline in fixed-asset investment, including real estate, highlighting persistent stress in the property sector.

While retail sales rose 3% year-on-year in September, they weakened compared with August, reflecting consumer caution.

“Given the uncertain economy and ongoing trade disputes,” Berning concludes, “large-scale U.S. dairy exports to China are unlikely to rebound until there are sustained signs of economic recovery.”

Industry Insight

China’s dairy import patterns reflect a dual trend — domestic expansion to achieve self-reliance and selective imports of high-value products like cheese and butter to serve urban, premium segments. The continued strength of these categories, even amid economic slowdown, underscores the resilience of value-added dairy demand in Asia’s largest market.

Source : Dairynews7x7 Oct 31st 2025- Dairy herd management