This is an era of big dreams. Everyone is dreaming big for the nation, for the farmers and for the economy. Our dairy industry is also playing a significant role in building the nation. Dairy contributes almost one third to the GVA to Agriculture . India has around 100 million farmers and almost two thirds of them are dairy farmers. We are largest producer of milk with largest population of cattle as well as dairy consumers in the world.
The government is very keen in supporting as well as representing this sector. In last six months we have seen numerous programs being organised by the ministry and other dairy development departments. A nation wide program to establish around 2 lakhs dairy cooperative societies with process is already underway. Animal health is first priority of government’s budget for the dairy development with over 50% share.
Industry is also following the government’s dream to improve productivity and increase milk production. India was showing an annual growth rate of around 4.0 % . It was reported to be 6% in 2013-14 and since then the data has gone beyond 6.5% also. We are expecting the milk production to treble by the time India will be 100 in 2047.
Is it really plausible ?
I believe that India could achieve these production numbers in next 25 years. The big question is whether it is plausible. Let us try to find answers to the following questions first.
a. What is the actual dairy demand in India based on per capita spending of rural and urban population ?
b.What will be cost of maintenance of unproductive animals by the time we become 100 in 2047 ?
c. What will be the population of sustainable dairy farmers in 2047?
d. What will be the impact of Indian dairying on climate in 2047?
e. What will be population of Vegans, Lactose intolerant and animal/climate conscious consumers in India ?
f. What will be market size of dairy alternatives using plant proteins as well as precision fermentation labs ?
g. How much will be the impact of ongoing inflation on consumption pattern for food in India by masses ?
h. Which will be the most efficient protein both from cost and digestibility perspective in the future ?
i. What will be the status of Indian dairy products in global dairy trade?
j. What will be the status of animal foods in the world in 2047 ?
I find myself in a position wherein I am having a conflict on two different sets of dreams. One being taken up by the key stakeholders and other by farmers and consumers. While I find an exponential expansion in dreams of the former group and a persistent contraction in the dreams of the latter . Here, I could clearly see a conflict . I deep dived into the theory of dreams to find out what does a conflict in dreams mean.
Dreams about Conflict commonly pertain to something you are trying to avoid or fight. Maybe there is a decision you know you should make but have been hesitant. The conflict in your dream can also signify a setback or roadblock in your progress.
I feel that present and future are always two extremes. The solution lies in meeting the both ends. I feel that building the dairy infrastructure to meet forecasted milk production levels is as bad as focussing on plant foods only now onwards.
Moderation is the new mantra
We need moderation. Moderation is the secret of survival. Scenario Planning is a process of crystal gazing into the future and begin the moderation process. I recommend all members of our dairy fraternity to start envisioning the future. I shall be part of 49th DIC on 17th March to deliver a lecture on Scenario Planning for dairy industry- A toolkit at 11.30 AM in technical session IV.
You all are invited to be part of this biggest Kumbha of Indian dairy industry from 16th to 18th of March. You may get your self registered at the following link.
Dreaming is not bad. However dreaming without contemplating the future and assessing the present may not be appropriate. I always find the following lines of DrAbdul Kalam very inspiring and motivational.
“Dream is not that which you see while sleeping it is something that does not let you sleep.”
Awaiting comments from all of you on the questions being asked above as well as your sharing on Indian dairy future in 2047.
Source : Dairy blog by Kuldeep Sharma Chief editor dairynews7x7.com