Rabobank Sees Cautious Dairy Price Recovery
Global dairy commodity prices are showing early signs of recovery in 2026, but the rebound is expected to remain cautious due to abundant global milk supply, according to Rabobank’s Global Dairy Quarterly report. The bank noted that strong milk production across major exporting regions—including the EU, United States, South America and New Zealand—kept markets well supplied, which pushed down prices of several dairy commodities such as butterfat, whole milk powder, skim milk powder (SMP), cheese and whey during the final quarter of 2025.
However, dairy protein markets including SMP, cheese and whey proved more resilient, while whey prices continued to rise due to strong demand for high-end protein products. Recent Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction increases have lifted sentiment and signalled that prices are capable of moving higher after a prolonged downturn. Looking ahead, Rabobank expects global dairy markets to gradually tighten as farmer margins come under pressure and supply growth slows.
Output from the “Big Seven” dairy exporters—EU, US, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay—is forecast to rise only 0.2% in 2026, a sharp slowdown compared with 2.6% growth in 2025. The outlook reflects softening production growth in South America, Australia and China, while milk output in Europe is expected to decline by 0.9%, partly offset by continued growth in the United States supported by strong beef prices. Analysts say the combination of slowing supply growth and steady demand could gradually stabilise global dairy commodity markets through 2026.
Source: Dairynews7x7 10th March, 2026 Read full story here
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